Point of No Return
I had no intention of writing anything about the conflict in South Ossetia, but it turns out it escalated much faster — and to a higher degree — than I (or anyone for that matter) expected. So much that for most of the mainstream media — and a couple of blogs I’m following — it totally overshadowed the massively promoted Olympics in Beijing.
The Russian involvement is certain to cause further escalation and I fear that no matter how international pressure might push towards a speedy cease-fire, the damage and cost (human or otherwise) is going to be huge for everyone involved. Long term instability in the region in the coming months (or even years) cannot be ruled out with any certainty.
What’s very interesting are the backstage politics: the timing of the attacks, the Russian intervention, Georgian expectations and reactions, the reaction of the West.
In an interview to CNN, Saakashvili, the Georgian president claimed that Russia had been planning the attack and building towards it through provocations and skirmishes for a while now. The idea he’s putting forward is that the combination of last February’s unilateral declaration of independence by Kossovo and its subsequent recognition by most of the West, the fact that it’s August (a time of year when most people are either on holidays), the ongoing Olympics in China and the upcoming US elections would make it easier for the Russians to use military force in order to occupy South Ossetia and strengthen the military capability of the separatists — an undoubted catalyst towards full autonomy. All this makes sense, but on the other hand, many of the same reasons could be why Georgia might risk attacking S.Ossetia itself: if Georgian military action in South Ossetia went unnoticed and unchallenged, they could, in theory, ‘resolve’ the issue and create a regional precedent that would certainly make Abkhazia’s efforts for independence much harder.
With both sides playing the propaganda game and accusing each other of provocations and aggression, it is impossible to discern what is really happening in the area; the stakes are too high for both Russia and Georgia, although from the look of things it wouldn’t be in Georgian interests to initiate a full-scale military operation in the region, so either they gambled (foolishly and at a huge risk) or they were attacked by Russia as Saakashvili claims. Still, no matter who started the conflict, I’m afraid that today’s escalation through the Russian use of bombers within Georgian territory — as reported by many western media — as well as the incursion of more than 150 Russian tanks in South Ossetia means that the point of no return before full-scale war is near.
Update: A Fist Full Of Euros has a more comprehensive account of what’s happening. Worth a read.
I think we should be objective in this tricky situation. If Mr. Saakhashvilly proves that our military forces, navy or air forces attacked Georgian territorry, the traces of such acts of aggression should be officially proved by mass media, victims claims, mobile video etc. Russia has such video and can prove that the first who started this crap of war was Mr. Saakhashvilly…And one more idea to to think over – Russia as other civillized countries is totally devoted to the Olympics and a war scandal is the last thing my country wants to happen. Ther’s no profit for us in this war conflict, but there’s a one for Georgian government. Backed-up by the glorious United States Georgia wants a reunion with its de facto independent areas. The world community will be eager to support a small country under attack during the Olympic Games.
As I analyzed this tricky situation, (watched news on CNN and 1tv, which is russian mass media television) I can clearly say that, Mr. Saakhashvilly – president of Georgia, lies on the situation in the South Ossetia and more than that he lies to his own nation!
Well, read BBC news and other European news sources, it is quite obvious that Georgia started the war.
CNN is obviously on Georgia side, it would readily protect it’s version of events.
What for delirium???!!!!! Georgia is perfidious has intruded on territory of Ossetia. During that moment when there there were Russian peacemakers. The staff with display of start of jet complex GRAD which show on TV with comments that it is the Russian militarians attack Georgia there is that other as attack of Georgia to Ossetia!!!!! Do not trust in this DECEIT!!!! Russia wishes to settle only aggression from Georgia. Our wounded men of peacemakers were shot ruthlessly by the Georgian soldiers!!!
Mr. Saakashvili won’t have to prove anything. Being nothing but a White House puppet, he will say what he’s told to say by the real mastermind of what’s happening. Oh yes, I am sure that the real war (the cold war) is still going on – Russia is far too large and powerful, so Washington is not likely to leave things as is. And it does not matter what we do to try and prove that Russia did not start the war or even provoke it. All we can do is deal with the facts i.e. The US is doing everything to protect its interests. Who cares about the costs or somebody else’s opinion? So we should do the same. Let’s imagine that the population of some ’separatist’ region in, say, Mexico is 90 % US citizens. And Mexico attacks this region. What would the US do? It is obvious – protect the population of US citizens. And this is what Russia should baldly do now – protect it’s interests, and protect its citizens. Wherever they live.
It seems that the US media is one-sided. They speak only with Georgians or someone who tells nothing good about Russia. They do not show the horror that really happened in South Osetia, though they can do it. Civilians and Russian peacekeepers were dieing, and Georgians were finishing wounded! What else Russia could do when no one in the world were going to react? Why is the US media one-sided? Because really they are not independent! Caucasia is the area of US interest and Georgian hands fits to take the control, so they are good.
And everyone suddenly have forgotten about Kosovo – part of Serbia by force settled with Albanians – the US legitimate its independence. Osetins for many centuries lived on the land of Osetia, but in 1920 it was divided between Russian and Georgian Soviets! But it is still their land. Then why today they have no right to determine with whom they wants to be?
I am completely agree with the previous speaker – unfortunately for the civilians, it’s all just politics, even for Russia. But the fact is the on Thursday 23.36 it was Georgia who covered Tshinvali with the massive attack – a lot of civilians died. I have friends from South Osetia – they confirm it and asked why russian military troops do not react. they asked for help. Is was only many hours later than our goverment risked to enter S.Osetia with troops. And the reason is – I am sure – the fact they knew it ould look very ambiguous.
Hope the war will stop and civilians stop dying. I will help any ivilian – no matter is he/she osetian or georgian.
Mr. Saakhashvilly says a complete lie.
Russia does not use bombers within Georgian territory.
Dear Sir!
If You pretend to be really objective, please take couple lessons of history. If You do so, you would to know that Osetia isn’t a Georgia.
That union was pure immitation, and was dictated at 1922 by comminist tyrant – Stalin, who was, as You would know, Georgian himself.
Interestingly, isn’t it?
So how you can call all the S.Osetians citizenry by “Rebel” and “Separatists”? Are all those thousands of S.Osetians woman and children who was attacked by Georgian’s forces are rebel. Or separatists? And why don’t You call the Georgians by rebel? – They (just the same way and the same time that Osetia chose) separated at 90′th from USSR.
And, please, be able to listen all participants. And be able to make elementary analysis before You doing some conclusion.
I undertand the wish of Georgia to re-unite the portions of the former Soviet Republic of Georgia, albeit it was a questionable map drawing excersize in 20s last century. South Osetians, seeing the example of Kosovo have they say in remaining independant or re-uniting with North Osetia (since it’s in Russian Federation, than with Russia as well).
By accepting the divide of Serbia world ratified existence of South Osetia, by fixing Iraq – the actions of Russia in Georgia.
If Georgia wanted to police South Osetia, I doubt that multiple rocket launchers, which shred several acres at once, is the right toll to do that.
OMG! There’s a Russian propaganda on the blog! hahaha, no Offence but with Putin on the lead, I can’t be sure about who’s to blame here… Don’t know much about Georgia.
Please try not to support a direct and indirect lie by propagating them at your blog.
xa xa, “Ena sovietiko internet”, indeed!
There is an interview of Michael Gorbarchev on the Washington Post in which he claims that the USA made Georgia believe that can take over S. Ossetia by force without punishment.
I’m really confused. It seems very hostile and unreal the entire scenario… Let’s hope that Sarkozy will find a way to stop the war. If he does, I’ll say he’s a “big man”, as for G. W. Bush, even his comments on the matter sound silly.
@Panagiotis: I doubt that the administration of Georgia actually expected the US to step in or that the US convinced it that it could get South Ossetia with impunity. It seems to me that Georgia gambled by expecting to ‘take’ S.Ossetia by force while the world stood there watching the Olympics. It gambled and failed miserably. It was an obvious provocation to the Russians and from the looks of things — coupled with Russia’s economic and military renaissance and Putin’s not-exactly-democratic administration (it’s funny how the incident in South Ossetia exposed Medvedev as the ultimate puppet president in office today) — it was expected to result in Russian military intervention.
It’s also clear to me that Russia chose to go over the top and destroy the Georgian mlitary machine. It has succeeded in doing so, although I fear that it went too far. Sadly, as is usually the case in such cases, I think it’ll get away with it, being a major regional and international power.
I’d like to see the Russian reaction over Poland and Czech Rep. after missile-shield installation. Although military actions are never and for no reason justified, Russia is doing whatever possible to protect herself. There is not much to blame on that. I can’t see why would Poland and Czech Republic want a “loaded gun” at home…
As for the USA. I’d like to see them doing something constructive for peace in this world. All they do is crisis escalation, whenever possible.
I’d like to add that I’m amazed by the line that the “Economist” journal took. I’ve been a subscriber for two years and I stopped the 3rd because I had to join the Army for 12 months. Now I’m, but after reading that biased articles, I don’t know if I want to be a subscriber anymore. it’s a shame, it was a fantastic liberal weekly magazine.