I had no intention of writing anything about the conflict in South Ossetia, but it turns out it escalated much faster — and to a higher degree — than I (or anyone for that matter) expected. So much that for most of the mainstream media — and a couple of blogs I’m following — it totally overshadowed the massively promoted Olympics in Beijing.
The Russian involvement is certain to cause further escalation and I fear that no matter how international pressure might push towards a speedy cease-fire, the damage and cost (human or otherwise) is going to be huge for everyone involved. Long term instability in the region in the coming months (or even years) cannot be ruled out with any certainty.
What’s very interesting are the backstage politics: the timing of the attacks, the Russian intervention, Georgian expectations and reactions, the reaction of the West.
In an interview to CNN, Saakashvili, the Georgian president claimed that Russia had been planning the attack and building towards it through provocations and skirmishes for a while now. The idea he’s putting forward is that the combination of last February’s unilateral declaration of independence by Kossovo and its subsequent recognition by most of the West, the fact that it’s August (a time of year when most people are either on holidays), the ongoing Olympics in China and the upcoming US elections would make it easier for the Russians to use military force in order to occupy South Ossetia and strengthen the military capability of the separatists — an undoubted catalyst towards full autonomy. All this makes sense, but on the other hand, many of the same reasons could be why Georgia might risk attacking S.Ossetia itself: if Georgian military action in South Ossetia went unnoticed and unchallenged, they could, in theory, ‘resolve’ the issue and create a regional precedent that would certainly make Abkhazia’s efforts for independence much harder.
With both sides playing the propaganda game and accusing each other of provocations and aggression, it is impossible to discern what is really happening in the area; the stakes are too high for both Russia and Georgia, although from the look of things it wouldn’t be in Georgian interests to initiate a full-scale military operation in the region, so either they gambled (foolishly and at a huge risk) or they were attacked by Russia as Saakashvili claims. Still, no matter who started the conflict, I’m afraid that today’s escalation through the Russian use of bombers within Georgian territory — as reported by many western media — as well as the incursion of more than 150 Russian tanks in South Ossetia means that the point of no return before full-scale war is near.
Update: A Fist Full Of Euros has a more comprehensive account of what’s happening. Worth a read.
